Addis Ababa Forum Scrutinizes Economic Dividends Ahead of Russia–Africa Summit

Less than a week before the third Russia–Africa Summit opens in Moscow on October 28–29, sharp questions are being raised over what African nations—Ethiopia included—stand to gain from Russia’s renewed diplomatic outreach. At a high-level policy dialogue held in Addis Ababa by the University for Peace (UPEACE), Ethiopian government officials, academics, and policy experts gathered to examine how Africa can strategically navigate intensifying competition among global powers, including Russia, China, the United States, and Europe. Central to the discussion was Ethiopia’s capacity to leverage its critical geopolitical positioning into tangible economic partnerships, infrastructure investments, and technology transfer, rather than relying on abstract diplomatic goodwill. Participants scrutinized whether Moscow’s political and security engagement with the continent is being matched by concrete economic dividends. They argued that the upcoming Moscow summit should be evaluated strictly on measurable results and binding commitments rather than rhetoric. The dialogue also took a close look at the current state of bilateral trade between Ethiopia and Russia. According to figures shared by the Russian Ambassador to Ethiopia, bilateral trade for the first half of 2025 reached USD191.2 million—more than double the figure recorded during the same period last year. However, Ethiopia’s export volume remains modest, consisting primarily of coffee, flowers, oilseeds, and pulses that Moscow has targeted for expansion. While exact bilateral trade deficit figures were not fully established, the persistent market access imbalance remains a core challenge for Ethiopian economic diplomacy. By contrast, Western partners have recently moved with high-value financial packages. France, for instance, announced major investment and financing initiatives during President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Addis Ababa in May 2026, including a €54.6 million agreement and a framework for a 150-megawatt geothermal project. President Macron also pledged €23 billion in broader investment commitments at the wider Africa–France summit in Nairobi, while those funds are not earmarked specifically for Ethiopia. Given China’s entrenched role as a major infrastructure and trading partner—alongside vital US economic and diplomatic interests—the UPEACE forum highlighted a fundamental dilemma: Can Ethiopia leverage this multi-power competition to negotiate better trade terms, infrastructure financing, and technology transfers instead of settling for diplomatic promises? The Moscow summit also arrives in the shadow of recent allegations that African nationals, including Kenyans, have been drawn into the war in Ukraine through deceptive employment offers. No allegations involving Ethiopian nationals were raised during the discussion. Addressing the issue, Dr. Zerubabel Tefera, an official at Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, dismissed claims regarding African fighters in Ukraine as ‘mere accusations’ that remain unsubstantiated. He emphasized that Ethiopia will continue to chart an independent course, prioritizing its own national agenda and interests when dealing with competing global superpowers. Dr. Zerubabel remarks underscore the delicate diplomatic balancing act Addis Ababa faces as Moscow prepares to host African delegations. The UPEACE dialogue underscored that- as the host of the African Union and a strategic anchor in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia possesses a unique opportunity not only to shape international competition, but to demand that diplomacy translate into verifiable economic benefits—including expanded export markets, job creation, and sustainable local growth.