El Niño-Linked Drought Affects 3.5 Million People across Six Regions in Ethiopia

A severe drought linked to El Niño has affected 3.5 million people across six regions in Ethiopia, as successive failures of the Belg and Kiremt rains undermine agricultural production and household incomes, according to the latest drought assessment by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). The drought has impacted 101 woredas following severe rainfall deficits during the June-to-September 2026 Kiremt season. El Niño-driven weather patterns delayed the onset of rains by up to four weeks in parts of northern, eastern, and southeastern Ethiopia, compounding earlier shortages from the Belg season. The phenomenon is also drawing scrutiny from economic policymakers, as disrupted rainfall raises concerns over food security, inflation, and economic growth. At the 2026 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, El Niño featured prominently in discussions regarding vulnerabilities to climate shocks. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, released during the meetings, projects that El Niño will persist through February 2027, with varied impacts across the continent. The IMF’s modeled economic scenario projects median GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa to be 0.5 percentage points lower and median inflation 2.6 percentage points higher in 2027, driven by reduced global agricultural output and higher commodity prices. On the ground, the IFRC has recorded 250,035 hectares of damaged cropland, 28,629 livestock deaths, and more than 319 water points that have completely or partially dried up. These losses are rapidly depleting the productive assets of farming and pastoralist households, threatening both food security and livelihoods. This economic strain is further compounded by conflict, displacement, previous asset losses, and soaring staple-food prices. Affected communities face declining food stocks, restricted local employment opportunities, and a dangerous reliance on negative coping strategies—particularly among female-headed households, families caring for malnourished children, older persons, and people with disabilities. Regional assessments reveal deep localized crises. In West Hararghe, Oromia, drought affected 316,986 hectares of cropland—of which 200,683 hectares were classified as totally damaged—with 97,064 farming households reporting livestock impacts. Out of 229 community ponds assessed, only eight retained water, leaving an estimated 696,873 people across 15 woredas in urgent need of assistance. Furthermore, critical water shortages have crippled public services, severely restricting drinking-water access in local schools and health facilities. In Tigray, 405,288 people were reported affected, with 250,865 estimated to need assistance across seven assessed woredas. Roughly 3.3 million livestock face high risks of feed shortages alongside more than nine types of animal diseases identified across 13 woredas. Meanwhile, in North Gondar, Amhara, 318,443 people—representing about 76.7 percent of the assessed population—were reported affected, alongside 19,318 displaced individuals struggling against shrinking food stocks and worsening water scarcity. Nutrition outcomes are deteriorating rapidly. A June 2026 screening in West Hararghe identified 24,925 children with moderate acute malnutrition and 2,896 with severe acute malnutrition out of 464,880 children screened. In areas classified under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification as Crisis or Emergency, conditions are projected to persist through January 2027, forcing vulnerable households to resort to borrowing, distress asset sales, or migration. In response, the Ethiopian Red Cross Society plans to assist 50,000 people across Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray through a six-month operation running from September 30, 2026, to March 31, 2027. Backed by an allocation of 749,973 Swiss francs from the IFRC’s Disaster Response Emergency Fund, the operation aims to distribute seeds and fertilizer to 5,000 farming households, provide livestock fodder to 3,120 pastoralist households, and deliver two rounds of multipurpose cash assistance to 1,880 households. Water-related interventions will include maintaining and rehabilitating 35 water systems, extending water lines by nine kilometers to public facilities, installing six water storage tanks, and distributing water-treatment chemicals to 3,000 vulnerable households alongside deploying 25 community health workers for malnutrition screenings. However, the IFRC notes that the planned target of 50,000 beneficiaries represents only about 1.4 percent of the 3.57 million people reported affected, underscoring a vast gap between the scale of humanitarian need and available response capacities. The report calls for increased resources, stronger contingency planning, pre-positioned assistance, and improved local preparedness to bridge the gap between early warnings and timely financing.